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Probative Rapid Interactive Modeling Environment
SRI is developing PRIME, a decision support tool to help analysts forecast and understand the plausible effects of actions taken within complex sociocultural environments.
Making decisions in complex situations requires modeling tools that incorporate socio-cultural factors and forecast the range of outcomes. The Probative Rapid Interactive Modeling Environment (PRIME) is a web-based application that supports political, military, and economic decisions by forecasting the plausible effects of candidate actions.
For government and commercial clients, researchers in SRI's Artificial Intelligence Center have developed PRIME's modeling and reasoning capabilities to stretch the thinking of analysts and decision-makers by helping them quickly determine which entities are potentially affected and identify unforeseen threats and opportunities.
PRIME captures sociocultural knowledge to model the plausible direct and indirect political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information (PMESII) effects of diplomatic, information, military, and economic actions. Examples include comparing strategies to curb piracy, and modeling the political stability effects of providing economic aid to a foreign country.
PRIME uses cause-effect rules to forecast successively higher-order PMESII effects of candidate actions. All rules are suggestive rather than conclusive, and accumulating evidence is used to weigh possibly conflicting forecasted effects. PRIME provides explanations of the forecasted effects, and compares the desired effects with those forecasted to highlight the relative strengths and weaknesses of competing courses of action.